Government of the opposition in a neutralized parliament- a second comment to the outcome of German elections

By: Hatto Fischer, Athens

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Monday 26/9/2005: Deutsche Welle reports that the Christian Democratic Union continues to insist that Merkel should become chancellor and thereby prime person of the next German government with ministers coming from both the CDU/CSU and SPD. The conservative demand is that prior to any negotiations with the Social Democrat, the latter and fore mostly Schroeder will have to acknowledge that the CDU together with the sister party from Bavaria received the biggest amount of votes, namely 35% and therefore 3 more seats than the Social Democrats. Schroeder's reply is that first the agenda of the next government will be discussed and after appraisal as to what agreements can be reached between the two parties, and only then the question as to who will be the next chancellor will be discussed and perhaps decided. Two different tactics seem to prevail prior to entering difficult negotiations which are to be resumed in Berlin this coming Wednesday, 28/9/2005, but is it enough to ensure a reasonable outcome?

Political strength versus interpretation of the will of German voters

Since it is possible that mathematical equations lead to confusing and even false political conclusions - the biggest country as to population size in the world, namely China was not one of the strongest economy for a long time due to a closed-door policy leaving the country isolated and weak - it would be advisable that Merkel and her Christian Democratic Union alongside with Stoiber from the Bavarian CSU do not confuse quantity with political strength. If anything the 35% of the vote or a majority by 3 seats is no way to demand recognition of being able to form the next government. For the real question is whether Merkel can convince the majority of German voters that she is capable of forming not only the next government together with the Social Democrats, but also to preside over ministers of different political backgrounds and still retain a spirit of consensus and cooperation needed for governing.

Given the lack of clarity what reform is really intended in terms of what would be really needed, and it should not be forgotten that aside from Schroeder's 2010 agenda none of the other parties have a concrete program, it is most doubtful that consensus will prevail about needed next steps. Many commentators speak therefore of a stale mate even if the grand coalition comes about.

Merkel without trust

A closer focus on the weakness of Merkel will make immediately obvious why she is unsuitable to unite a country that has given right now its votes to five different parties. Her style and personality is confrontational rather than being able to mediate. Many East Germans feel she has betrayed what they understand differently in terms of political paths to be taken when attempting to modernize Germany's economy while retaining not only bridges to the past but to a kind of solidarity feeling. Merkel has embraced too much the public relations steered neo-conservative and neo-liberal slogan which suggests deregulation and granting business opportunities is the salvation to everything. Schroeder has predicted such a course would mean a much colder Germany than what it is already.

It seems also improbable that the CDU and CSU can give her the support she needs in order to govern. The risk that a lot of back stabbing will happen within the first two years of a government under her auspices is tremendous. There is not only Stoiber who cannot forgive himself for having lost to Schroeder nearly in 2002, nor how Merkel outmanoeuvred him in this latest election. He needs desperately a come-back if he is going to salvage his own legacy being questioned already more and more back home, that is in Bavaria. The promotion to the top is always a standard answer of political parties if they cannot get rid of a politician making too many mistakes but which they cannot fire for it would mean loosing too much in terms of own reputation and political stability. Thus it seems highly likely that she will be able to manage any kind of workable governance over the entire period of time that is four years until the next election or even for two years if it comes to a power sharing arrangement with SPD. For governance requires quite another appraisal of the mandate received from the German voters.

Of course, when Bush was elected in 2000 by the slightest of all votes, and even they were doubtful, he proceeded after having assumed office as if he had won a landslide victory. He ignored thereby how split the country was and what other measures would be needed to attain a balanced development. Instead, he catered only to neo-conservative interests groups, including churches and other types of organizations with a slant view on politics by favouring only small-state governance. The consequences have been a disaster as revealed by the state of the economy burdened by a non-checkable deficit due to the war in Iraq and a not to be justified tax cut for the sake of the rich, but lately also by the lack of response of the state to the hurricane Katrina.

The majority in the opposition

The political situation in Germany will be marked more by opposition than by a dialogue between opposition and governing coalition parties since Merkel has within her own party strong opposition. It will get stronger in the months to come since many will be dissatisfied. They had expected to win outright but after this election disaster they cannot even plan their political careers in any reasonable way. Many Conservatives will wonder around like forgotten dreams and wonder where the certainty of victory has disappeared to.

Then there is not to be forgotten the FDP which will be sent by a grand coalition into the opposition despite of having gained in vote and seats. They had expected to take over the foreign ministry and economic or finance ministries as it used to be rule when Kohl and Genscher governed for nearly 16 years unchallenged. Certainly the dissatisfaction of the FDP will challenge Merkel's ability to rule over the waters of the Spree since they will attribute to her directly and alone the loss of the election. Here then enters the bitter truth for Merkel: she was not victorious but a looser which is being right now glossed over by the fact that her CDU and the CSU party stand behind her as if she had won outright. Such a demonstration can become quickly a fiction and then reality will test the political skills to get out of that Bundestag filled with many dissatisfied political representatives called cynically 'Stimmvieh' - the animals needed for bringing in the necessary votes. Backbenchers are known to revolt occasionally but in view of the likelihood that Merkel will slip up over and again they will seize their opportunities since in reality in majority. It means predictable mistakes by Merkel will be taken as cue to cast votes in the sense of bringing home messages hidden right now from public view. Then there are the Greens who have to deal in the opposition with their own post Joschka Fischer dilemma of trying to keep some profile while wishing to become more pragmatic for the sake of participating in future government. The latter would mean a coalition with CDU/CSU, and there is a slight chance that if the grand coalition talks fail, the GREENS will make the historic step and enter a coalition with the FDP and the CDU / CSU since power tastes sweeter than apple wine.

Cleary no matter what the GREENS will do, they risk out of opposition to themselves to loose all political profile. If they go into opposition, they will be one voice among many. They will have to face music from within for what they have lost in profile in the past while unable to muster such strength in opposition that their voice shall be heard beside all the other parties in opposition. For instance, compared with the Left Wing Party, they cannot so easily denounce any governmental programs as being anti social since they have shared power with the SPD for the past seven years and have been voted out of office due to failed reforms. Or they will loose their base if they enter a coalition with the CDU / CSU.

Indeed there is a real risk by the GREENS that the over pragmatic wing will have the upper hand and given the opportunity they will enter a coalition with the Conservatives. If that wing succeeds, they will have effectively neutralized, destroyed or expelled any of their original convictions and become a Green party beyond recognition. They will not be considered as a middle of the road party able to respond to and to articulate main stream concerns. As such they are going to pay now a heavy price for having followed too quickly Joschka Fischer's desire to participate in government just to satisfy his ego to become foreign minister rather than staying in opposition in order to mature in political responsibility. Many of the failures of the GREENS can be attributed to the simple fact that they never took the time to be in the opposition in order to observe how the system works and what structures counter any progressive ideas. Now they are now forced to do that what Joschka Fischer has failed to give them the time to do so, namely to learn the hard work of being in the opposition prior to assuming government. The GREENS have managed quite a few things while in government but after the Visa Scandal which hurt Joschka Fischer more than what they had anticipated, they will start to fade away if they cannot get a grip on things. Here Fritz Kuhn may be a sharp contender and manage to give a new profile to the party. But there are many 'ifs'. For instance, Claudia Roth will have to refrain herself as she risks becoming more a prolific polit-clown than doing any effective PR work for the GREENs. What may have worked in the past, is no longer as convincing under these new circumstances. So while Fritz Kuhn because of his intellectual sharpness will have to be careful not to frighten away more people from the Greens, the attraction of new voters cannot be easily guaranteed. Certainly the GREEN party risks loosing substance out of lack of internal political debate. Here Claudia Roth fails to see that her way of bringing across messages fail to convince. She is always half serious, half funny and thereby leaves much to be said in-between a rhetoric that may have been gifted in the climate of post '68 efforts to appear still revolutionary while already well adapted to the political game inside of the established institutions, but it is certainly not the language needed nowadays. That leaves Kuenast with her gift to have an impact upon farmers to counter balance Fritz Kuhn in an effort to make the Greens more social, outgoing and likeable. Some Green advisors like her style of bringing about stories with facts that confront even journalists with a new way of presenting and seeing things. Again, such gifts may be needed in a much confused German parliament where the presentation of the facts created by the voters can be interpreted in many different ways. There are numerous possibilities but the GREENS risk to confuse the outcome and therefore not make any sense out of it. This means they risk being driven in the course of the next four years ever more to the margin and therefore face already now grim prospects at the next federal election. To many they have become unreliable as political force due to being too pragmatic and not resilient enough to temptations of the wish to stay in power no matter what principles are sacrificed in the process. Hints that they are even open to the Right can well mean that voters who hesitated but still voted for them this time around will definitely be lost the next time around.

Then there is the opposition of the Left Wing party. Here it will be interesting on how Lafontaine shall deal with the fall-out of the vocabulary he used in the election campaign to attract right wing voters. Gysi will not have the satisfactory health to sustain tough and endless tactics an opposition party needs to go through if they are going to make their presence be felt permanently and not only as an one time wonder of the German voters who wish that a left impulse gives shape to governmental policy. The possible presence of Stasi members in their ranks is also an aspect that has bedevilled the PDS and other East European political parties of the Left. At the same time, they stand much more for an elitist approach to securing privileges within the system rather than bringing about social justice for everyone.

The picture of the opposition would be incomplete, if the opposition within the SPD to the current course is overlooked. It was this growing opposition in the rank and file of the SPD that forced Schroeder to make that decision of an early election. Clearly he had no longer the power base to continue with the reform course as he had wanted. This opposition within the SPD will not be easily convinced that going with the CDU/CSU is the only alternative in getting out of the dilemma all political parties are confronted with due to this curious election outcome.

In sheer number of parties, the mathematical picture is clear: it is better to form a government with three parties rather than with two for two would mean facing three opposition parties and that certainly would not make governing any easier. Hence the real government in this new legislative period will be by outcome those constituting the opposition to whatever new government is going to be formed out of opposition to the other possibilities or near impossibilities. The sheer endless possibilities of creating more opposition stirs then the imagination of the many who shy away from taking political responsibility, see also the newly elected Right Wing party in Poland as it would have preferred to preside over the others in order to mediate rather than being taken immediately to task as to whether such a government can really deliver.

The continuity of the undecided

One positive outcome of the German election is that the 25% of the undecided have now made indecision into the utmost political principle of governance. Without wishing to overstretch the point, the philosopher Stegmueller pointed out that world perceptions are already determined in the use of the definite article as in 'der Mann, die Frau und das Kind' with the latter signified by the neutral 'das' as if a society postpones in the case of a child the decision whether to call it a boy or a girl. 'Das Kind' is a neutral referential to give time to the undecided or not yet to be decided. Of interest is that 'Weltanschauungen' determined by the definite article entertain still other thoughts. A look at some of the key concepts of German philosophy will reveal the amazing aspect that many are designated by the neutral 'das': das Objekt, das Subjekt, das Parlament, das Leben, das Sterben, das Tier, das Hemd. The philosopher Kant has called this the prolonged debate before identifying something in a conclusive manner. Another way of putting it is the prolonged puberty or the moratorium the psychoanalyst Ericson called for in order to give a second chance to the youth having to grow up in difficult times and not knowing what job to qualify for. In that sense the German vocabulary shall be enriched by this new government of the opposition as not the child of Merkel but as the 'hung parliament': das liegen gebliebene Parlament - the parliament left lying on the ground. Still, there is rescue in sight as the masculine voice asserts itself by calling Parliament in German: 'der Bundestag'. Clearly to find a political voice that goes with this assertive tone of perhaps Schroeder and which can make out the course of future development in a maze of neutralized ones, that shall not be an easy task in these coalition talks ahead.

 

 

 

 

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